Climate change concerns everyone.

Small talk is mostly about the weather (after the non-question “How are you?”).

So surely, climate change should be of everyone’s concern?

Especially when earlier this year it was announced that in 2023 the world had warmed up by 1.5°C (the exact number reported was at 1.48°C).

This blog explores what happens when the climate continues to increase🌡️ and what some of the solutions are.💡

Enjoy the read…

1.5°C. Where does it come from?

The 1.5°C temperature increase was set by the Paris Agreement back in 2015 as a ‘safe’ benchmark for the world to be able to adapt to. The goal is to remain as close to 1.5°C as possible.

1.5°C = the global temperature increase since the industrial age, when factories started to replace manual labour and as a result harmful greenhouse gases started to be produced.

The period of 1850-1900 is the baseline that everyone is using, because there is good historical data (although the period started earlier, especially in Europe). (BBC)

Small but significant

Even though 2023 reached the infamous 1.5°C temperature increase, our world hasn’t officially warmed up to this temperature yet. This is because for a temperature to be official, a longer period of a consistent increase is needed (e.g. to take into account the warming El Niño and cooling La Niña).

Research by The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows that 1.5°C will probably be reached in 2030, but it won’t be formally set until later (closer to 2040). (Met Office)

Our ultimate aim: emissions produced should be absorbed by our natural world (and excess by man-made technology).

This  production-absorption balance is our ‘net zero’ target. The United Nations (UN) and the IPCC urge that net zero, globally, must be reached by 2050.

1.5°C may seem small, but it can be seen as the limit, like the final drop.

How can we all relate to a small temperature difference?

Think about the snow/rain threshold. Anywhere below 1°C and it will snow. Anywhere above 1.5-2°C and it will rain. We notice this difference!

What about heat?

Living in the south of France I have personally noticed a big change when the temperature outside goes above 35°C, when it nears body temperature. This feels extremely uncomfortable. Like a sauna.

Then, what happens after the 1.5°C threshold, say at 2°C?🫣

Scientists and researchers believe that a further temperature increase will mark a “crucial tipping point.” (CBC News)

So, what is predicted to happen at a 2°C increase compared to a 1.5°C?

NASA’s review of the IPCC special report (2019) says this:

Weather events at 2°C?

• Heat waves: 37% of the world will see extreme heat waves – compared to 14% at 1.5°C
• Drought: over 60 million more people globally would be exposed to extreme drought
• Water: potentially up to 50% more water scarcity will have to be dealt with globally (note: water availability is heavily dependent on the socioeconomic situation per region)
• Heavy rainfall: this could rise by 4% – especially at high latitudes
• Storms: tropical storms will increase due to warmer oceans and rising sea levels. Category 4 and 5 will be common

Biodiversity at 2°C?

• Extinction: entire loss of plants, insects and animals = double compared to 1.5°C
• Ecosystems: ecosystem shifts and relocation of species – double compared to at 1.5°C
  • Arctic and Alpine regions are particularly at risk here
• Increase wildfires in forests = reduction in biomass and biodiversity in general
• Desertification: especially the Mediterranean desert and arid areas will start to expand = losses of biodiversity
• Marine heatwaves: the oceans absorb heat, but a higher air temperature will warm-up oceans further = ocean heatwaves =
  • Water acidity
  • Decrease of oxygen
  • Coral reefs are likely to become extinct
• Loss of sea ice = global sea-level rise
  • heavily impact polar bears and whales
• Permafrost: an estimated 1.5 – 2.5 million km² (take note of this huge number!) of permafrost will thaw
  (essentially defrost)
  • entire communities built on permafrost could be lost
  • organic carbon (stored in permafrost) will be released into the air
  • viruses and bacteria that are frozen will be released – yikes!

Human impact at 2°C?

• Hundreds of millions people will be impacted by a 2°C temperature increase
  • Especially vulnerable populations, Indigenous peoples, and those who rely on agriculture and coastal resources
• Heat: higher heat-related illnesses and mortality
  • Higher rate of vector-related diseases (organisms that transmit infectious pathogens)
    • A big part of this will be due to mosquitos, whose population will increase
• Sea-level rise: inundated lands. 70% of the world’s coastlines will be impacted
  • Coastlines will vanish, resources will become scarce, and people will be displaced
• Food: lower crop-yield and smaller crops
  • Certain foods will become less nutritious (especially cereal-type foods)
• Economies: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) losses

(Main source: NASA’s review of the IPCC special report | Other sources: UN, SIGMAEarth

With bad climate news comes good news🙌

But luckily, we are not there yet.

What are some of the good things that are happening around the globe?💪

• Agroforestry practices – this combines forestry (tree-and-shrub planting) with farming (both crop and livestock) to create wind shelter, better soil quality, resilience to floods & droughts, and a more diverse income
• Reforestation projects – one successful example is the replanting of the Atlantic Forest in Brazil, where more than 3.5 million native seedlings have been sown
• Reef Rescuers, Seychelles – this restoration project managed to successfully ‘transplant’ 24,000 corals grown in underwater nurseries onto coral reefs over a 9-year period
• The Sri Lankan government adopted a national policy to conserve and restore all mangroves in the country (UN)
• The UN has launched a World Restoration Flagship programme in response to countries claiming to restore 1 billion hectares of nature (land/sea). The programme will give these project leaders a push to progress their project and make it of high quality
• The European Union is now working on new rules to ban misleading green advertising/generic environmental claims/greenwashing, to be implemented by 2026

Climate solutions: key focus

• Green tech holds one of the keys to a more sustainable future. It spans so many areas, from upgrading “energy-inept” infrastructure and poor building materials, to innovating and implementing reliable renewable-energy sources, and urgently transforming farming techniques
• Agriculture is a huge focus to make farming practices more sustainable. This needs financial support, new technology/machinery, learning tools and mentoring
• Education for everyone – young and old
  • In schools
  • In businesses to educate their employees at all levels
  • Individually we can make better decisions about what we eat (more plants), buy less and think local, reuse things and recycle properly
• Charities and activists work globally to push the green movement and challenge governments/big polluting corporates
• The COP events are setting more ambitious goals – but real action is needed
  • Where is the fossil-fuel transition/phase out at?
• Governments must implement more robust climate policies – and phase out the unhelpful, including the likes of carbon offsetting practices, greenwashing and create firm policies for the big polluters

I leave you to think about any eco projects in your local area that are happening…

See you at the next chapter!🙌